3GSM World Congress wrap-up (3) N52

3G: the focus of the 3GSM World Congress was no longer on network technologies but instead on compelling applications. The market has shifted from trial and pre-commercial services to mass-market consumers from tier-one operators (64 UMTS networks in operation + CDMA 2000 networks). Nokia forecast there will be 100  3G UMTS networks and some 70m 3G users by the end of the year. But the main problem remains: which application will allow 3G taking off?

Among a lot of available applications, such as conferencing, instant messaging, always-on email, image sharing, etc.. four are more particularly forecast to potentially impact the 3G market. The first one is music downloading. Nokia, Microsoft, Logica, Loudeye and MTV Music are the most active. This application is seen as an extension of healthy ring tones downloading market for 2G. The second one is unsurprisingly wireless broadband and is related to broadband internet access and data transfer. The third one could be “push to view”, a push-to-talk-like video connection. Introduced by LG, it is premature to status on immediately, but the concept is there and has been tested on 2G networks. It is noticeable from those three applications is there is no innovation in them, just an enhancement with the introduction of high-speed and image. Do we lack ideas? The fourth application is Mobile TV. The concept is known, but the challenge is to receive TV programs on a small-size screen. Chipsets and DVB-H modules are introduced, but what will be the customer demand? Is triple-play going mobile? Besides hype, the question is still pending. Wait and see….

3G handsets: According to Strategics Analytics, 20m units were shipped in 4Q04 (or 3% of total handset sales in 2004). LG, NEC and Motorola are leading vendors.