WiMAX

WiMAX
WiMAX is just at the corner: fixed WiMAX and now mobile WiMAX. With standardization approved last week, vendors and semiconductor makers will have to work to introduce products as soon as possible. For years, WiMAX has been hyped to solve today’s broadband access problems. What remains today?

Some are still considering that WiMAX has tremendous potential to offer a global, standardized broadband wireless platform. But it should be wise to acknowledge that mobile operators have always seen relative disinterest in data outside SMS (in spite of announcements putting target of mobile data to 25% to 33% of their turnover), some have paid a lot for WCDMA licenses and need some return on investments, fixed incumbents could only be interested in WiMAX for rural areas or abroad, fixed alternatives (specially cable and ISPs) are probably the most interested to deploy the technology and access the consumer, while top mobile vendors (Ericsson, Nokia, Motorola, Qualcomm,.. ) have raised concerns and doubts for a long time. It is not surprising to see Qualcomm attacking WiMAX' s claimed mobile potential, its CDMA patent business is at risk. In general, vendors are not insensible to WiMAX, but are not strong promoters. They are really followers. At contrary, silicone vendors, with Intel at their head, are really working to promote the technology. Furthermore, the lack of real, broadband, profit-generating applications is always there to ask for an operational business case. The problem is not for data-hungry road warriors (a small minority), but for the consumer. How much will it be willing to pay? So the hype of mass deployment must be tempered.

Others consider that WiMAX will only have limited deployments in niche markets. It is very pessimistic.

WiMAX is currently at a stage where enthusiasm about its possibilities is being eclipsed by disillusion about the fact that these have not yet appeared, but first deployments would dry those accusations and justify interest. WiMAX will replace Wi-Fi because it has better performance (radius, speed, cost/ covered area, ..). Mobile WiMAX can challenge 3G cellular technology in some selected domains (out of 3G coverage, rural zones, campuses, in-door , ...). What is highly predictable is that WiMAX will start relatively slowly, a little bit as the WiFi scenario. Remember the hype on hotspot deployment forecasts in 2001-2002 and the current situation. Before significant deployment, a new technology has always strong hurdles to face with (regulatory, legal, technical, commercial, ...) and it takes time.

So, the list of recriminations and concerns will continue to be raised until the products are there and deployed. With product availability forecast around early 2007, operators and vendors have time to streamline a workable business case.