Is 3G/WCDMA a success?

Is 3G/WCDMA a success?
Operators and vendors are doubling efforts to make 3G a success. A recent GSA survey reveals that about 272 WCDMA user devices (handsets, PC datacards, etc.) are currently on the market, a significant increase of 150% over last year. In the last six months only, 93 models were launched. Recent models include HSDPA (14 products) or dual-mode WCDMA- GSM/EDGE (31 models). More and more vendors are launching 3G devices: they are now 37 (up 85%). And about 100 3G/WCDMA networks can now offer commercial services. No doubt that the offer is exploding. But the demand?

Currently there are some 40-45m 3G WCDMA users, up 140%. This is good, but still limited. Remember how long it was to create GSM demand. Two or three countries are now accounting for the majority of WCDMA users (Japan, UK, Italy,..) and the service was launched there in 2001 and 2003. More recent service launches bring hope for a take-off in 2007/2008. Look in France, where most 3G operators are ahead of their forecasts, in Europe, where Vodafone is patiently building its customer base, and finally in China, where strong expectations could be ready to materialize before the Olympic Games in 2008.