Sonae/ PT deal is not over

Strong with Portugal' s regulator approval for its hostile bid for PT, Sonae has launched its offer for $12,3 per PT share. But the current price for a PT share is $13,1, so Sonae does not offer a premium, but a minus, and analysts doubt that the bid is successful, unless Sonae comes with more cash. Under Portuguese law, Sonae has until Feb. 28 to raise its $18bn offer. Local insiders think that Sonae will wait until the last possible moment to raise its offer. It is a double risky strategy:

• PT has issued its own PT share price evaluation (on Sonae' s criteria) and it is $16.4, asking shareholders not to sale at Sonae ' s price. Zeinal Bava, PT' s vice Chairman, also said the company is studying all possibilities, including a counter bid for SonaeCom. That should be a big splash if the hunted becomes the hunter!! But nothing is impossible.

• Another bidder can emerge, offering a higher price and forcing Sonae either to raise its price or leave.

It is clear that the deal, if completed, will not be at starting price, and that many options are still open to get the final PT owner, either of the whole company or only of some selected subsidiaries.