Past and Future

I do not have a crystal ball and will not made predictions, despite current ambiance. I just would like to highlight what seems to me areas that would expand in 2007 and further, after a launch or trials in 2006.

2006 : 2006 is at the end and it is quite difficult to extract real new trends. Of course, there were mammoth deals during the year (Verizon/MCI, ATT/Bellsouth (still pending), Alcatel/Lucent, and Nokia/ Siemens and many others), but it not new, neither in number, nor in size. What perhaps seems to me more significant is the end of the capacity glut, telcos are experiencing first capacity shortages since 2000. The remains of the telecom turmoil are swept: the financial market is back interested in the telecom market (IPOs, JVs, ..), investments and capex are growing, capacity demand is back upwards (long haul market, submarine market, storage market, ..). New markets were taking off, such as carrier Ethernet, FMC (fixed/ mobile convergence), backhauling, VOIP, broadband mobile, etc... and they promised to be hot in coming years. On the technology front, 2006 was mainly a year of defining or trialling new technologies, such as mobile WiMAX, 3G TD-SCDMA, carrier Ethernet, HSDPA and Rev A broadband mobile internet, 100Gbit/s Ethernet, ...
I would not say 2006 is business as usual, but it looks like a transition year.

2007: Fixed/ Mobile convergence is at the forefront, driven by user demand for a single bill, cheaper connection, a choice of dual-mode handsets, "good-enough" free phone services such as Skype, etc. The race to WiMAX should be hot also, with first “large” networks deployed (Sprint, ...), WiMAX licenses granted in all five continents, and availability of first mobile WiMAX products. The third point could be the race for speed, be it on a fixed or mobile network. I think of course at the end-user connection speed: several Mbit/s on copper lines (ADSL, ADSL2+, VDSL,), up to 100 Mbit/s+ on fiber (FTTH or HFC) or 2M-10Mbit/s on cellular networks (HSDPA for GSM or Rev A for CDMA). But this would highlight the lack of adapted content, except TV distribution or video files sharing, and precisely the two current rising stars in the Internet market are YouTube and MySpace. When will major media companies be interested in this area? We probably also can say that the trend towards standardization will continue. Gradually, telcos will transition away from their legacy systems (TDM, ATM, Sonet/SDH) towards more standardized, flexible and inter-operable systems (Ethernet, IP/MPLS, NGN, IP-based infra, etc). The move would highlight a more general trend of telcos broadening their horizons to provide more than just telecom capabilities (i.e. telcos offering IPTV, VOD, ...). This raises the value chain concern. Can we in 2007 found a solution to everyone currently contesting all places in the value chain? Perhaps, but it is important for the market development that boundaries are clear and accepted. So wait and see....