Mobility in China
China roughly maintains adding some 5m new mobile users per month. I remember the time (not so far in 2001/2002) when analysts said it was an unsustainable move as the potential market (sufficient income) was saturating. Facts have demonstrated they were wrong. In fact partially, as new lower-income users have accessed mobility, benefiting of lower rates, lower handset prices and adapted packages. The result is that 95%+ of new users are prepaid, drawing ARPU down. How far can ARPU go down, without putting mobile operators at risk? With a current ARPU of $11, it is not far from the lowest ARPU in the world (around $9).
Operators have perceived the danger, and in a move, radically different from what was expected three years ago, mobile operators are trying to be more selective and sign up higher quality customers. This auto-limitation is not yet a reality, but it could be interesting in coming months if it materializes.
