China may license 3G soon

After a period of intense activity, in early 2006, to predict when China can grant 3G licenses, it was very quiet for several months. Rumors are again surfacing, with the announcement made by Wang Xudong, the head of China's telecoms regulator (MII): the government may soon issue long-awaited 3G mobile licenses (but he did not provide a specific timetable) and China could spend about $128bn in telecom over the next few years. Another information given by Wang Xudong is that China will let telecom operators choose the 3G mobile-phone standard they want to deploy and that no change in the current structure of state-formed and private investor-backed carriers is planned. Reports, however, continue to circulate of possible property swapping between carriers (both fixed and mobile). So excitation is back again. Infrastructure and terminal vendors position themselves on this huge market, there are now multi sources of TD-SCDMA terminals, trials of 3G technologies continue and TD-SCDMA technology seems improving. The conclusion should be that 3G licensing is imminent and conditions are better now than six months earlier. Merill Lynch, however, continue to think that we are seven or ten months off 3G licensing, giving more time to TD-SCDMA tests and improvement. Who is right?

The final target is however unchanged: have 3G networks deployed for the Olympics Games in Beijing in 2008.