Indian mobile capex

Indian mobile market continues to perform well and overtakes all estimations. Now, it is estimated that India could have 200m subscribers in 10/07 and probably 300m in 04/08 instead of 2010. As a consequence the mobile networks will have to follow the increase in mobile users, leading therefore to increase capex. Lehman Brothers forecast capex should grow 11% in 2008 to $4bn, 24% in 2009 and 27% in 2010. Echoing the trend, Bharti said it will continue to spend capex at current $2bn levels till FY09, with the peak capex year only coming thereafter. Lehman Brothers also believes that small operators have aggressive strategies to expand outside their circles and nationally, accelerating network rollouts and related capex. IDEA, Aircel, BPL, Spice are valuable candidates to compete with current four national players, Bharti, Reliance, BSNL, and Hutch. And 3G licenses are on the horizon (2H07), with its train of new investments. China has been the Eldorado for the past ten years, India is ready to continue the race.