PON, Ethernet FTTH momentum

According to Infonetics Research, demand is strong for PON and Ethernet FTTH equipment, driven by video, IPTV, and other high bandwidth applications. PON equipment revenues could grow to $2bn in 2009 (from $620m in 2005) and reach almost 11m ports shipped that year. PON subscribers are forecast to surge to 31m in 2009 (vs 3.4m in 2005). The Ethernet Access Device (EAD) market is similarly expected to grow to almost $680m in 2009 (from $91m in 2005). PON is very strong in APAC (Japan and now China); BPON is deployed in NA (Verizon); while Ethernet FTTH is strongest in Europe. Accordingly, Asian companies are leading the world market; Mitsubishi first followed by Hitachi. Mitsubishi leads the market in APAC, Tellabs in NA, Motorola in EMEA, and Alcatel in CALA.

Another research firm (TDG) forecasts slightly different figures, with a number of Asian FTTH subscribers to be 40m by 2010 (from 4.6m in 2005), reaching about 25% of all Asian broadband subscribers. TDG reports that main FTTH developments will be primarily urban (but is it a surprise?).