Not yet for this year?

Not yet for this year?

Xmas is almost there and 3G phones were expected to be the must-have Christmas gifts. Alas! the new phones are not quite good or cheap enough to compete with 2G/2,5G handsets. Several actors in the market estimate that the migration to 3G would not be effective until the terminal cost is under €100, or in about one year from now. Size and battery life are also issues with 3G phones, and if things are moving, improvements are still needed for mass acceptance. Evidence of those facts is the latest Nokia guidance of global handset shipment for 2006, it increased 2006 volume to 780m units (from previous 690m guidance) but did not increased 3G share (50m units).

Even if 3G sales increased this year to 14% (from 8% last year) of around 55m units to be sold in WE in 4Q05, 3G growth is still slower than many had expected. In September, 3G accounted for less than 4% of the WE subscriber base.

We will see in few weeks if predictions are correct.